Fiscal Policy Advice for 2024: Recommending Debt Sustainability and Inclusive Growth

The fiscal policy guidance for 2024 aims to promote debt sustainability and inclusive growth, benefiting all segments of the population

FREMONT, CA: The  European Commission is providing guidance to member states on the conduct and coordination of fiscal policy for the upcoming year. The guidance comes as a discussion on the future economic governance framework. In 2024 the overall fiscal policy should endure medium-term debt sustainability and promote sustainable and inclusive growth in all member states.

By the end of 2023, the stability and growth pact's general escape clause will provide for a brief exemption from the standard budgetary requirements in the case of a serious economic slump. As soon as the general escape clause is no longer in effect, quantitative and differentiated country-specific fiscal policy recommendations will once again be made.

The commission's orientations served as the foundation for discussions in November 2022 over a revamped economic governance structure. It is not appropriate to revert to the sole application of the sustainability and growth pact's rules in place prior to the activation of the general escape clause in 2020, given the post-COVID-19 reality and the advent of new economic governance.

The current legal framework is not yet placed, till continues to apply, given that the new legal framework, is based on the outcome of the ongoing economic governance review. At the same time, a Few elements of commission reform orientations that are consistent with current legislation could already be incorporated into the fiscal surveillance cycle, to allow for an effective bridge to future fiscal rules.

The commission stands ready to purpose country-specific recommendations on fiscal policy 2024, which includes quantitative requirements as well as qualitative evidence on the investment and energy measures. Remaining consistent with the current legislation under the stability and growth pact, these recommendations will consistent with the criteria proposed in the commission's orientations.

The fiscal adjustment criteria set out in commissions' reform orientations, comply that member states are invited to set out fiscal targets stability and convergence programmes. To contribute to fiscal sustainability, and inclusive growth, including the green and digital transition and resilience objectives in line with the criteria set out in the reform orientations, they are also invited to discuss how reform investment plans are expected.

Corresponding to the financial goals that member states set forth in their stability and convergence plans provides that these goals are consistent with ensuring that the public debt ratio is brought down at a prudent level and that the budget deficit is less than the three per cent GDP benchmark over the medium term.

On fiscal policy country-specific recommendations, the commission will continue to emphasise public investment. Under the recovery and resilience facility and other EU funds, in particular the green and digital transactions and resilience objectives, All member states should continue to protect nationally financed investment and ensure the effective use of funds. The country-specific recommendations will also provide guidance regarding the financial cost of energy measures.

A decision on whether to subject member states to the excessive deficit procedure should not be made this spring, according to the Commission, given the continued high level of unreality from the macroeconomic and budgetary viewpoint at the present time. In accordance with current legal requirements, the Commission will recommend to the Council that excessive deficit processes based on deficit be opened in the spring of 2024 using the results from 2023.

In executing their 2023 budgets, developing their stability and convergence programmes this spring, and creating their draught 2024 budgetary plans this fall, member states should take this into consideration. Following the commission orientations, discussions on the reform of the economic governance framework are moving forward with an agreement on a number of crucial goals. Following the next economic and financial affairs and the European Council in March 2023, the commission plans to provide legislative recommendations.

In May 2023, as part of the European Semester spring package, preliminary fiscal policy guidance for 2024 is provided in this communication, which will be revised as needed.

The revised guidance will continue to take into account the state of the global economy, the specific circumstances in each member state, the expansion of the persistent discussion of the economic governance review, and council policy discussions.

Member states are encouraged to incorporate these recommendations into their stability and convergence plans. The guidance provided in the present day aims to assist member states in developing stability and convergence programmes that contain their medium-term budgetary and structural objectives. It is followed to be in the spring by the fiscal proposal that is country-specific, which will serve as the framework for the commission’s monitoring of fiscal results, beginning with the draught 2024 budget plans for European areas member states that the commission will evaluate in the autumn.

The commission released its recommendations for changing the economic governance system in November 2022. The primary goal of this proposal is to strengthen national ownership, streamline the framework, and shift towards a considerable medium-term focus, along with more effective and cogent enforcement.

The fiscal policy guidance for 2024 aims to promote debt sustainability and sustainable and inclusive growth. This means that the government will focus on policies that will not only support economic growth but also ensure that the country's debt does not become unmanageable. The policies will also be designed to benefit all segments of the population, including those who are traditionally marginalized. Overall, the goal is to create a stable and prosperous economy that benefits everyone in the long term.